SU: Complexity, climate change and human systems
HCOL 2000 L (3 credits)

Tuesday 11:40-12:55 pm (Eastern US) (online)
Instructor: Brian Beckage (Brian.Beckage@uvm.edu)
Office Hours (remote by appointment)



Course Description


Course Goals


Grading


Books & Media


Stella


Policies


Schedule



Course Description

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The Earth is a complex coupled human-natural system that is increasingly dominated by human activities. We will examine anthropogenic climate change as part of an integrated earth system that includes impacts on and feedbacks with human systems. We will consider the challenges and interactions between climate change and human societies by considering responses of current and past societies to climate change and environmental degradation. We will place anthropogenic climate change in the broader context of limits to growth, sustainability, and societal development. The class will emphasize readings, discussions, and construction of simple simulation models to understand the scientific and social basis of contemporary climate and sustainability. Students will use the graphical computer programming language Stella to develop a simplified model of the Earth system.


Class Structure. This will be a reading-intensive, seminar-style course consisting of readings, discussions and exercises rather than lectures. Class will meet twice a week for 75 minutes. The class will consist of the following components:

  1. Readings. This will be a reading intensive course with reading assigned for most class meetings. The readings will primarily be from course books but will also include assigned articles.

  2. Discussions. There will be an online discussion of the readings in Yellowdig. The discussions will be centered around a set of assigned questions. We will use class time to address any outstanding questions from the assigned readings or online discussion.

  3. Media. There will be assorted documentaries or other videsos that we will watch over the course of the semester.

  4. Modeling. Students will work on assigned exercises and a modeling project to learn system dynamics approaches to modeling using the graphical programing language Stella. We will use class time to address any modeling and programming questions from the assigned exercises.


Course Goals

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  1. To have an understanding of the physical basis of climate change.
  2. To use this knowledge to contextualize the responses of current and past societies to climate change and environmental degradation.
  3. To employ a system dynamics modeling framework to synthesize climate change and resource use within the limitations of the Earth system

Achieving these goals will require:


Grading

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Student grades will be based on the following four components:


  1. Weekly (quizzes) based on assigned readings and media. (20% of final grade).
  2. Homework assignments. These will be a series of modeling exercises and assignments in Stella. (10% of final grade).
  3. Student participation in online Yellowdig discussion. Students are expected to fully participate in and contribute to online discussions. (25% of final grade)
  4. A group modeling project on the coupled natural and human system. Students will implement a model from an assigned research paper, add a feature to the model, make a video presentation describing the model and the resultant dynamics. (25% of final grade).
  5. Comprehensive final exam. (20% of final grade)

Late assignments will be assessed a 10% penalty for each day late.


Books and Media

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These books will be required for this class and are available in the university bookstore:

  1. Emanuel, K., 2018. What we know about climate change. MIT Press. ISBN: 9780262535915 Link to book.
  2. Meadows, D.H., 2008. Thinking in systems: A primer. Chelsea Green Publishing. ISBN: 9781603580557. Link to book on Amazon.
  3. Ford, Andrew. 2009. Modeling the Environment, Second Edition. Island Press. ISBN: 9781597264730. Link to book
  4. Jared M. Diamond. 2011. Collapse : how societies choose to fail or succeed: Revised edition. Penguin. 608p. ISBN-10: 0143117009; ISBN-13: 978-0143117001 Link to book.

We will watch a variety of documentaries, video lectures, and podcasts. I try to find free sources of these media, but you may have to rent, purchase, or find them through a subscription service (e.g., Amazon Prime, Netflix, Apple TV, etc.). These media include the following:

  1. An Inconvenient Truth (97 mins)
  2. A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash (83 mins)
  3. Seaspiriacy (89 mins)
  4. Planet of the Humans (100 mins)
  5. Don't look up (138 mins)

Stella

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We will build system dynamics models in the graphical programming language Stella created by ISEE Systems. This will require a semester student license for the Stella software at a cost of $59 for a semester license. You should receive an email from ISEE with instructions for purchasing and accessing Stella.

Stella website
Beginning with Stella
Sample models
Model exchange
Language Reference
Video: Adding a stock (1:00)
Video: Adding a flow (1:40)
Video: Adding a connector (2:03)
Video: Placing a converter (2:04)
Video: Defining a converter (2:29)
Video: Creating a plot (0:59)
Video: Scaling variables in plots (1:14)
Video: Entering values for stocks & flows (2:22)
Video: Choosing model run specs (0:51)
Video: Adding documentation and color (1:22)

Policies

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